{
    "unit": {
        "Fallacy": {
            "FormalFallacy": "ProbabilisticFallacy"
        }
    },
    "title": "Galactic Logic Academy: Mastering Probabilistic Reasoning",
    "screens": [
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "Welcome, Cadet! Your next mission is to explore the realm of probabilistic reasoning. Misunderstandings in probability can lead to flawed decisions, and your task is to identify and correct these errors to ensure the galaxy thrives. Ready to dive in? Let's go!",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "Probabilistic fallacies occur when reasoning about probabilities is flawed. These errors can lead to incorrect conclusions and misguided actions. As a cadet, your mission is to recognize and address these fallacies to maintain logical consistency.",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "One common probabilistic fallacy is the gambler's fallacy. For example, a planetary leader might argue, 'Our planet has experienced five years of drought, so we are due for a year of rain.' This reasoning is flawed because past events do not influence independent probabilities.",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Mcq",
            "text": "",
            "question": "Which of the following is an example of the gambler's fallacy?",
            "options": [
                "A planetary leader believes that after five years of drought, rain is more likely this year.",
                "A scientist argues that the probability of rain remains constant regardless of past weather.",
                "A trader assumes that a coin flip will land heads because the last five flips were tails."
            ],
            "correct_indices": [0, 2],
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": [
                "The gambler's fallacy assumes that past independent events affect future probabilities."
            ]
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "Another probabilistic fallacy is base rate neglect. For instance, a leader might argue, 'A new technology has a 90% success rate, so it will definitely work for our planet,' without considering the base rate of success across similar planets.",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Mcq",
            "text": "",
            "question": "Which of the following demonstrates base rate neglect?",
            "options": [
                "Ignoring the overall success rate of a technology when evaluating its effectiveness.",
                "Assuming that a rare disease is common because a test has a high accuracy rate.",
                "Considering both the base rate and the test accuracy when evaluating a diagnosis."
            ],
            "correct_indices": [0, 1],
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": [
                "Base rate neglect occurs when the general probability of an event is ignored."
            ]
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "The conjunction fallacy occurs when people assume that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. For example, 'A planetary leader is more likely to be a scientist and a diplomat than just a scientist.' This reasoning is flawed.",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Checkboxes",
            "text": "",
            "question": "Which of the following are examples of the conjunction fallacy? Select all that apply.",
            "options": [
                "Believing that a planetary leader is more likely to be a scientist and a diplomat than just a scientist.",
                "Assuming that a starship is more likely to be fast and durable than just fast.",
                "Claiming that a planet is more likely to be habitable and resource-rich than just habitable.",
                "Assuming that a rare event is more likely when combined with another rare event."
            ],
            "correct_indices": [0, 1, 2],
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": [
                "The conjunction fallacy assumes that a combination of events is more likely than a single event."
            ]
        },
        {
            "screen_type": "Text",
            "text": "Congratulations, Cadet! You've completed the Galactic Logic Academy's unit on probabilistic fallacies. Your ability to identify these errors will help ensure logical decision-making across the galaxy. Keep up the great work!",
            "question": null,
            "options": null,
            "correct_indices": null,
            "correct_text": null,
            "hints": null
        }
    ]
}
